TRREB's October 2026 Report: GTA Sales Fell, but the Market Is Quietly Tightening — What Richmond Hill Buyers and Sellers Should Know

October brought a familiar headline and a less familiar undercurrent to the GTA housing market. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), 5,603 homes sold across the GTA in October 2026 — down 7.9% from the 6,083 sold in October 2025. The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7% year over year, while the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark fell 4.3%.

Read past the headline, though, and the market is quietly tightening. New listings dropped 11.9% year over year to 14,173, and active listings ended the month at 25,098 — down 10% from a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and prices actually edged up from September. In other words, fewer homes are coming to market, and the homes that do sell are moving at a steadier pace. Homes took an average of 31 days to sell — unchanged from a year ago — and sold for an average of 97% of asking price.

What it means for buyers

Buyers still hold the negotiating power in most segments, and TRREB says so plainly. With roughly 4.6 months of inventory, there is choice on the market, and well-priced homes are not drawing the bidding wars of a few years ago. That is good news if you have been waiting on the sidelines.

But the window may be narrowing. New listings are falling faster than sales, which means the supply cushion is shrinking. If that trend continues into the new year, buyers who wait for a much better deal may find fewer homes to choose from rather than lower prices. The practical move now is to get your financing in order, know your budget at today's rates, and be ready to act when the right home appears — especially in sought-after Richmond Hill neighbourhoods, where well-presented homes continue to attract serious attention.

The Bank of Canada's October 28 decision is part of the calculation. The Bank raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50% — its first increase in three years — and its next decision comes December 9. Buyers should confirm what the new rate means for their own monthly payment before making an offer, and talk to a mortgage professional about fixed versus variable options.

What it means for sellers

For sellers, October's message is to price for the market you are in, not the one you remember. The average price is down from last year, and buyers have options. Homes that are priced realistically, presented well, and marketed properly are selling in about a month. Overpriced listings, on the other hand, tend to sit — and in a market with falling new supply, a stale listing stands out for the wrong reasons.

There is a silver lining: with fewer new listings competing for buyers' attention, a well-priced home faces less competition than it did earlier this year. If you have been considering selling, the coming winter months can still work in your favour — serious buyers are shopping, and there are fewer homes for them to choose from.

By property type, detached homes averaged $1,310,627 across the GTA in October, townhouses averaged $804,416, and condo apartments averaged $621,400, with 1,385 condo sales for the month. Each segment is behaving a little differently, so a neighbourhood-level price check matters more than a GTA-wide average when you are deciding on a list price.

The bottom line

October was a pause, not a turning point. Sales are below last year, prices are softer than a year ago, but supply is tightening and month-over-month momentum improved. For buyers, that means leverage today with a reason not to wait forever. For sellers, it means pricing carefully and presenting well to stand out in a thinner market.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in Richmond Hill or anywhere in York Region, the M2Team would be glad to walk through what these numbers mean for your home and your plans. Contact us for a no-obligation home evaluation and a straightforward conversation about your next move.

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Market Watch, October 2026 (released November 4, 2026). Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026 rate decision.