CREA's September Report: National Sales Cooled — What It Means for Richmond Hill Buyers and Sellers

Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association released its September 2026 national housing data, and the headline is clear: after four months of modest progress, the market took a step back. "Many of Canada's housing markets took a step back in September," said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart. "This fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines."

Here is what the numbers show, and what they mean for Richmond Hill buyers and sellers.

1. Sales Are Cooling Nationally

National home sales fell 2.3% in September from August, following a 0.7% dip the month before. On an actual, not seasonally adjusted basis, sales were 7.7% below September 2025. CREA points to the jump in fixed mortgage rates since late summer as the trigger, with the Bank of Canada expected to raise rates again before the end of the year.

For Richmond Hill, this matters because national slowdowns change buyer psychology everywhere. When headlines say sales are cooling, buyers feel less urgency and negotiate harder — and sellers who are watching national coverage start to adjust expectations.

2. Prices Are Softening, Not Collapsing

The MLS Home Price Index edged down 0.4% from August and is down 3.4% year over year. The national average sale price came in at $666,538, down 1.6% from a year earlier. CREA's revised forecast now sees Ontario prices down 3% for 2026 as a whole.

What does this mean locally? Richmond Hill's premium neighbourhoods have historically held up better than the national average, but softer national prices still give buyers more room to negotiate — and they tell sellers that aspirational pricing will be punished. Pricing your home to the current market, not last spring's, is now essential.

3. The Market Is Balanced — and Tilting Toward Buyers

The seasonally adjusted sales-to-new-listings ratio slipped to 48.8% from 49.1% in August, further below the long-term average of 54.7%. National inventory sits at 4.9 months, close to the long-term norm. A balanced market, in plain terms.

For sellers in Richmond Hill, a balanced market means your home won't sell itself on hype. Strong presentation, accurate pricing, and a real marketing plan are what separate sold listings from stale ones. For buyers, it means conditions are workable again: financing and inspection clauses are back on the table in many segments, and competition is manageable.

4. CREA Cut Its Forecast — Again

CREA now expects 444,530 national sales in 2026, a 5.2% decline from 2025 — its third forecast cut this year. It sees the national average price at $681,681 for the year, up just 0.2%. For 2027, CREA projects a 4.4% rebound in sales and a 1.2% rise in average prices.

Forecasts change, but the direction is consistent: the market is expected to stay subdued through year-end, then stabilize. If you're thinking of buying in Richmond Hill, the next few months may offer the most negotiable conditions you'll see before any recovery takes hold.

What To Do Now

If you're selling: price to today's data, present your home at its best, and go in with a strategy for a balanced market — not the bidding-war market of years past. Days on market will reward the well-prepared.

If you're buying: a cooler market is an opportunity, not a reason to freeze. With the Bank of Canada widely expected to raise rates before year-end, locking in a rate and buying while competition is thin can be the smarter move than waiting for headlines to turn positive again.

If you're considering selling your Richmond Hill home, or you want to know what it would fetch in today's balanced market, contact the M2Team at Right At Home Realty for a no-pressure home evaluation. We will give you an honest read on the numbers and a plan that fits this market — not last year's.