What the October 28 Bank of Canada Decision Could Mean for Richmond Hill Buyers and Sellers

On September 2, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting, unchanged since the rate cut in October 2025. The next scheduled decision arrives October 28, and it will include the Bank's updated economic projections — the first fresh forecast since July.

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home in Richmond Hill or elsewhere in York Region this fall, this decision matters. Here is what the extended rate pause means for you, in practical terms.

Steady rates bring something the market has lacked: predictability

Variable mortgage rates move with the Bank's policy rate, and with seven straight holds, prime rates at Canada's major banks have sat unchanged at 4.45%. That means borrowers on variable-rate mortgages have had stable payments for nearly a year, and anyone applying for a new mortgage today knows exactly what rate environment they are entering.

Fixed mortgage rates follow a different path — they respond to bond yields rather than Bank of Canada decisions — but they have also been relatively stable lately, with 5-year fixed rates in the mid-4% range. The net result: affordability has held fairly steady through 2026, and TRREB's own analysis noted that "ownership housing in the GTA has remained relatively affordable over the past year, with average prices dipping and mortgage rates remaining somewhat flat."

What the pause means for buyers

Predictability is a genuine advantage when you are house hunting. With the rate environment stable, you can run your numbers with confidence: the mortgage payment you qualify for today is unlikely to shift before the October 28 decision, and markets are currently pricing only a modest chance of any move before year end.

My advice for Richmond Hill buyers right now:

Get pre-approved before you fall in love with a home. A pre-approval locks in your rate for 90 to 120 days and tells sellers you are serious.

Compare fixed and variable honestly. Variable rates have been stable, but fixed rates offer certainty on your biggest monthly expense. The right choice depends on your risk tolerance and how long you plan to stay in the home.

Budget conservatively. Qualify yourself at a rate slightly above what you are offered, so a future increase would not put you under pressure.

What the pause means for sellers

The August numbers from TRREB tell an interesting story. GTA home sales were down 2.1% year over year to 5,057, but new listings fell much faster — down 14.1% to 12,075. The average selling price was $993,410, down 2.7% from last year, while active listings dropped 11.3% to 24,482. Months of inventory sat at 4.6, and the average home took 35 days to sell.

In plain language: prices are still soft, but sellers are putting fewer homes on the market, which means properly priced listings face less competition. TRREB itself noted that less choice and more competition between buyers "could ultimately result in renewed price growth in the months ahead."

For Richmond Hill sellers, the fall market offers a real opportunity. Fewer competing listings mean well-presented homes stand out — but only if they are priced to the current market. Buyers in a stable-rate environment are informed and patient; overpricing a listing in September will cost you more than pricing it correctly from day one.

What to watch on October 28

Three things will matter most: the Bank's inflation outlook (headline inflation has been running near 3%, at the top of its target range, largely on energy prices), the state of Canada-U.S. trade talks (ongoing tariff uncertainty is the Bank's biggest stated concern), and any signal about whether the current rate is still "appropriate" — the language the Bank has used to justify holding.

Whatever the decision, your best move is the same: base your plans on today's rates, not on forecasts.

If you are considering a move in Richmond Hill or York Region this fall, let's talk through what these conditions mean for your home. Contact the M2Team for a complimentary home evaluation and a clear-eyed look at your buying or selling options.